Pronatalist Policies and Fertility in Russia: Estimating Tempo and Quantum Effects

This paper examines the family policy reforms of 2007 in Russia that were aimed explicitly at encouraging second and higher-order births, analyses their impact on fertility. The existing empirical findings about population interventions transition economies are inconclusive, while most common argument states policies based material incentives insufficient to significantly raise real fertility a population. study aims offer better insight following research question: was Russian demographic effective terms raising level country or did it merely change timing births? objective is measure two effects pronatalist Russia: tempo effect quantum effect. Using data from Human Fertility Database, I employ decomposition method separate observed total rate, estimate relative weight changes. analysis period indicators confirmed prevalence rate change, but also revealed measures, although this much smaller. Policy varied by birth order. For parity, played more critical role, for third parity important. Another approach employed contributions various factors increase number births during post-reform showed which driven order births. provides evidence behaviour, expands measures taken Russia, contributes our understanding role recent Russia.